HR Trends 2026: Flexibility Instead of Layoffs — How to Manage Payroll in Conditions of Uncertainty

Every year, we try to anticipate how the labor market will change. But looking back over the past few years, it becomes clear: the main trend of the future isn’t specific technologies, but resilience to change. Companies that have built flexible and adaptive HR models have come out ahead. Others were forced to scramble to “patch holes,” often at the cost of painful and demotivating layoffs.

2026 will be the moment when the trend of building a flexible model to increase labor efficiency and productivity firmly takes hold. One of the key challenges for any leader and HR director is the growing burden of payroll (wage fund). Let’s look at why this is happening and what strategies can help not just survive, but develop effectively.

Why Payroll Becomes a Heavy Burden

The payroll burden is increasing due to several objective reasons:

Inflation and wage indexation. Maintaining employees’ purchasing power is a necessity, not optional. Indexing wages even at the level of official inflation significantly increases costs.
The “war for talent” in niche areas. It’s nearly impossible to find a qualified specialist in fields like AI, cybersecurity, or digital marketing at an average market salary — companies have to pay more than expected.
Benefits and non-monetary motivation. Modern employees value not only money but also things like health insurance, access to a corporate psychologist, education opportunities, and gym memberships. These are all significant parts of payroll.

The Main Challenge of 2026

The loss of preferential tax status (for small and medium enterprises) and increased fiscal burden. For thousands of companies that lose this status, the real cost of employing each person will sharply increase due to higher insurance contributions — from 15–20% up to 30%. That means payroll cost per employee could rise by 10–15% even with the same salary level.
Businesses will face a hard choice: absorb these costs, reducing margins, or try to shift them to employees — risking higher turnover and lower motivation and engagement.

In the classic paradigm, when companies need to cut costs, the first thought is layoffs. But this strategy carries high risks: team morale falls, expertise is lost, the workload increases for remaining employees, and the employer’s brand reputation suffers.

Is there an alternative? Absolutely.

Outsourcing and Workforce Provision (Outstaffing): Optimization Instead of Cutting Staff

Instead of ruthlessly cutting the headcount, companies are moving to a model of “flexible payroll.” The idea is to divide functions into:

Critical roles (core business)
Support or project roles

For the latter, outsourcing is ideal.

For example:

Instead of a full-time in-house lawyer — legal outsourcing (paying for specific tasks like contract review, court representation, or consultation).
Instead of a full-time accountant — external accounting services (a team of specialists often costing the same or less).
For a one-off IT project — IT outsourcing (paying per project, not maintaining a full-time employee).
Instead of maintaining a whole marketing department — work with external agencies focused on specific channels (SMM, PPC, SEO, etc.).

What This Approach Provides

Cost control. You know exactly how much a function costs — no unexpected sick leaves, maternity leaves, or mandatory indexation for outsourced specialists.
Access to expertise. You get a team of professionals who would be expensive or difficult to hire and onboard as full-time employees.
Scalability. During growth, additional resources can be quickly involved without hiring. During downturns, you can just as easily reduce volumes without painful layoffs.
Focus on core business. Leadership and key staff can concentrate on strategic tasks while routine or specialized functions are handled by external experts.

Conclusion: Your HR Strategy for 2026

The upcoming year demands that we rethink company structure. The internal team should be compact, highly motivated, and focused on key business competencies. All other functions should be considered through the lens of outsourcing.

Don’t cut — restructure.

A modern leader’s task is not to manage a bloated staff, but to skillfully leverage a hybrid team of internal employees and external experts. This is the most effective way to manage payroll burden, preserve flexibility, and strengthen competitive advantages in uncertain times.

Elena Chizhova, Executive Director of ANCOR Staffing