Remuneration of Blue-Collar Workers in Russia: Trends and Analysis 2025
Slowing Growth of Blue-Collar Wages in 2025
In 2025, we are seeing a slowdown in the growth rate of blue-collar wages compared to previous years. After a surge in wages in 2022–2024, when employers were forced into a “salary race” due to an acute shortage of workers in this category, incomes will continue to grow, but at a more moderate pace.
Experts note that the peak of ultra-fast wage growth has already passed — companies today are unable to maintain last year’s high increases. As a result of this wage race, over the past few years pay for blue-collar workers has grown so much that by November 2024 the average wages of workers had almost caught up with those of managers.
At the same time, there is still active wage growth in those staff categories where the labor shortage is most acute: workers and production staff, construction workers, and sales staff — these groups account for roughly two thirds of labor market demand. Even within blue-collar occupations, wage growth has been uneven. Highly skilled workers — for example, experienced welders and turners — increased their income relatively moderately, by about 7–9% in 2024. Unskilled workers, however, were in such high demand that they could easily switch jobs for a higher rate, so their wages rose at an outpacing rate.
In 2025, nominal wage increases will most likely be close to inflation compensation, while real wages for workers will show a more modest growth level — about 5–7%, which is noticeably lower than the double-digit figures of 2024. Thus, the overall trend in the blue-collar wage market is a slowdown, not a decline. Blue-collar wages in 2025 continue to grow, but without the previous hype.
Leading and Lagging Industries in Wage Growth
In 2025, wage growth rates vary greatly by industry — some sectors continue to increase pay almost at record levels, while others are taking a restrained approach to indexation. The fastest growth is seen in industries with the sharpest talent shortages and/or rapid growth in demand for products. According to job market research for the first half of 2025, the leaders in offered salary growth are:
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Automotive manufacturing — average salary offers rose by about 43.4%. This is linked to restructuring of the sector (localization of production, need for workers for assembly and repair) and a shortage of skilled workers who moved to other industries after a number of foreign automakers exited the market. To attract people to service centers and assembly sites, employers raised rates significantly.
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Raw materials extraction (oil, gas) — growth of about 43.3%. In the resource sector, especially in import substitution projects and new fields, there is a labor shortage. Companies have to significantly increase pay for drillers, production operators, and other workers to fill vacancies in remote regions and retain experienced staff. Plus, high commodity prices through mid-2025 allowed budgets to include wage indexation.
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Transport and logistics — about +39% year over year. Here the key issue is the shortage of drivers and operators. Freight transport, delivery, warehousing — the entire sector is experiencing a shortage of personnel, so wages for drivers, couriers, and forklift operators were growing ahead of the market. Companies increased base pay, added per diems and bonuses for overfulfilling trips, and as a result average income in transport rose substantially.
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Individual segments of manufacturing (consumer goods). For example, according to official data, light industry showed strong growth in total employee income: apparel manufacturing +29%, beverages +34%, chemicals +24%, pharmaceuticals +20%, tobacco +68% year over year. Partly thanks to import substitution, these segments were able to ensure income growth mainly through the variable part — likely due to large bonuses and extra payments based on 2024 results.
At the other end of the spectrum are industries with low wage growth — where product demand is not increasing and/or there is a surplus of labor. Among those increasing pay in 2025 more slowly than the market average are:
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Retail — growth of about 21.5% over six months. After the boom of previous years, retail has entered a saturation phase: consumer demand in 2025 stopped growing, so salaries for salespeople, cashiers, and loaders are indexed minimally, and in some places indexation is even being saved on. Retail companies, against the backdrop of slower revenue growth, are focusing on retaining current employees without significantly increasing compensation.
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Healthcare and pharma — growth of about 16.7%, only slightly above inflation. This is due to the fact that a significant part of healthcare is publicly funded, employees are paid according to tariff scales, and indexation is constrained by a set percentage. In private medicine, wage growth is also limited due to declining patient purchasing power. Pharmaceutical manufacturing shows growth above 20%, but this is more the exception in the sector — overall, healthcare and pharma lag other industries in wage growth.
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The financial sector in 2025 ended up among the laggards, and in some places even showed negative dynamics. According to Rosstat, in finance and insurance, the average monthly salary at the start of the year fell by 3% compared to the same period a year earlier. Banks and insurance companies faced sanctions pressure and additional costs, so many employers optimized headcount and cut bonuses.
The reasons for these differences are obvious: where there is a shortage of labor and high demand for staff, wages grow faster because companies need to attract people. Where the labor market is stable and there is no shortage, wage growth is minimal. According to ANCOR, about 71% of companies out of 386 surveyed in summer 2025 planned to revise salaries upward, versus 84% at the end of the previous year. The most cautious in raising pay were sectors such as retail, mining, chemicals, construction, and agriculture — their indexation plans in 2025 were canceled due to declining consumer demand for their products. Those employers who did announce wage increases were motivated by an acute staff shortage and the impossibility of automating many operations — that is, where people are indispensable, wages will have to keep rising.
Labor Demand: Dynamics of Vacancies and Resumes
The labor market in 2025 has begun to stabilize, which is reflected in the ratio of vacancies to jobseekers. More candidates have appeared: many people, sensing signs of instability, started posting resumes more actively. In addition, many companies in the first half of 2025 carried out headcount optimization, which led to an increase in the number of active jobseekers. For example, in June 2025, hh.ru had 3.23 million active resumes — 25% more than a year earlier (June 2024 — 2.59 million). According to ANCOR’s outplacement practice, significant layoffs affected a number of industries, including metallurgy, mining, and IT. As a result, competition for jobs has intensified: there are fewer vacancies and more candidates.
For blue-collar jobs, the situation is somewhat different: the labor shortage persists, although there are signs of a gradual move toward a supply–demand balance. There is a slight increase in competition for blue-collar positions. An acute shortage of applicants remains only locally, in certain regions, for example in areas adjacent to Moscow and St. Petersburg.
The most difficult situation is in the coal industry. For example, in Kuzbass — a key coal-mining region — the number of vacancies over the past year almost halved amid losses at some companies and a general slowdown in the sector. Wage growth there has also slowed markedly. Overall, the labor market is ceasing to be “overheated”: the number of vacancies is declining, the number of resumes is growing, and by mid-2025 we can speak of a gradual easing of the earlier staffing tension caused by the personnel shortage.
Shortage of Blue-Collar Occupations and Its Impact on Wages
Despite the overall stabilization of the labor market, demand for blue-collar workers remains high, which directly supports wage levels. In the first half of 2025, about 30.7% of all vacancies in the country fell on blue-collar jobs, another 12.5% on transport and logistics, and 9.8% on industrial production.
Among the most in-demand occupations are: drivers, equipment operators, skilled machinists, construction workers, and retail workers. For example, drivers consistently top the list of scarce positions — almost 19% of all vacancies are for them. Demand is so high that the driver shortage in Russia is projected to reach 1.5 million people by 2030 due to an aging workforce and low inflow of young people into the profession.
This shortage of labor leads to outpacing wage growth precisely in these categories. Companies, trying to attract staff, significantly increase pay. For the first time in 2025, blue-collar jobs appeared among the highest-paying positions in Russia, surpassing many white-collar roles.
According to ANCOR’s Salarydata analytics, the top-10 vacancies with the highest salaries included a vertical lathe operator (about 257,000 RUB) and a carousel operator (about 250,000 RUB). For comparison, IT roles in the same ranking showed the following: DevOps engineer — 280,000 RUB, iOS developer — 180,000 RUB. That is, some skilled blue-collar workers are now earning at the level of top IT specialists.
The average offered salary in the country in 2025 rose from 99,700 RUB in January to 113,900 RUB in July. At the same time, the average wages specifically for blue-collar staff reached 136,000 RUB, and some categories — for example, turners and long-haul truck drivers — earn on average 180–190,000 RUB. This shows that companies are ready to pay more just to fill vacancies in deficit areas.
Impact of Migration and Regional Competition on Wages
Labor migration and interregional competition are having a noticeable effect on the blue-collar market in 2025.
First, the decline in the inflow of foreign workers has increased the burden on the domestic labor market. Exchange rate differences and stricter regulatory requirements have made working in Russia less attractive for migrants from traditional CIS countries. In sectors that traditionally rely on migrant labor — primarily construction and housing & utilities — the decrease in foreign workers is pushing wages up to attract local staff. Higher pay for blue-collar workers is largely tied to the demographic “hole” of the 1990s, outflow of some workers abroad, and the drop in migrant numbers. According to ANCOR’s Salarydata platform, in construction the average wages of blue-collar workers rose to 112,000 RUB in Q2 2025.
Second, regional competition also affects pay. More developed regions and major cities continue to attract skilled workers from other regions by offering higher pay. Northern oil and gas regions and the capitals (Moscow and St. Petersburg) traditionally lead in pay levels, creating staff shortages elsewhere. As a result, workers from depressed regions continue to move to where wages are higher. For example, the Moscow and Leningrad regions are experiencing staff shortages because a significant share of workers commutes to the capital. To retain people, local businesses have to raise salaries.
In summary, migration factors and regional competition are pushing blue-collar wages upward. The shrinking supply of cheap foreign labor and the “pull” effect of richer regions are creating additional pressure on employers and leading to wage growth. In 2025, these effects are especially noticeable in construction, manufacturing, and transport.
Linking Wage Growth to Productivity
Many companies in 2025 realize that raising wages without increasing labor efficiency leads to serious economic losses. Therefore, there is a clear trend toward linking worker remuneration to performance indicators, quality, and completion of norms. In industry, KPI-based systems are being introduced more and more often. When productivity data affect employee income, workers are more motivated to improve, show initiative, and strive for better results. That is why companies are actively implementing various incentive schemes so that wage growth goes hand in hand with productivity growth.
Directly tying pay to productivity is implemented through bonus systems. For example, at one aluminum plant in 2025, monthly bonuses were introduced for achieving target OEE indicators, and super-bonuses were offered for record overperformance. At the same time, workers were shown the current efficiency level on screens in real time and were trained to understand this data. This approach produced a tangible effect: within a few months OEE at the plant increased by 22%, staff turnover decreased, and employees themselves began proposing process improvements. Such cases show that linking pay to productivity has a strong motivational effect. Companies offer bonuses for meeting plans, for zero defects and no downtime, and even organize competitions between shifts.
Thus, wage growth is increasingly tied to work results. Employers link pay increases with output growth, product quality, overall equipment effectiveness (OEE), and other KPIs. If a company pays more, it expects a proportional increase in employee contribution. As payroll costs grow, many businesses introduce a performance-based component to maintain economic balance. This is especially common where results are easy to measure: assembly operations, conveyor lines, transport (for example, piece-rate per trip). As a result, in 2025 employers have taken a steady course toward paying not only for time worked but also for the employee’s contribution to production results.
Pay Structure: Share of the Monthly Bonus
A typical worker’s salary at a manufacturing company consists of a base rate and a variable part: bonuses and incentives. In 2025, the monthly bonus for blue-collar occupations on average makes up a significant but not dominant portion of total income — according to Salarydata, about 15–25% of total earnings, depending on the industry and company. That is, the base salary usually accounts for 75–85% of total income, and the rest is bonuses for meeting targets, quality work, etc. This structure motivates workers to achieve certain results to receive their full income.
In 2025, an important change in the regulation of bonus payments took place, confirming the importance of monthly incentives. According to amendments to the Labor Code (Federal Law No. 144-FZ), which entered into force on September 1, 2025, the employer is prohibited from reducing a regular bonus by more than 20% of the employee’s monthly salary. In other words, the bonus portion can be cut by no more than one-fifth of the total monthly income. Previously, bonuses were largely at the employer’s discretion and could be canceled entirely; now the law protects this part of earnings.
On the market as a whole, the share of monthly bonuses in 2025 remained roughly at the same level, although in some companies it could decrease slightly due to cost optimization. Some employers, seeking to retain staff, even increased the fixed part (base salary), reducing dependence on bonuses. But in most cases, the pay system for workers remained mixed: base salary plus monthly bonus. According to Salarydata, about 70% of employers use bonus-based motivation systems for blue-collar staff. The bonus is often fixed as a percentage of the base (for example, 20% monthly for meeting plan indicators) or as a predetermined amount. No major changes were observed in 2025, except for the legal protection of bonuses, which made regular incentives a more guaranteed part of wages.
Shift from Hourly Pay to Performance-Based Pay
Are employers in 2025 moving from hourly pay to piecework? Partly yes — there is a trend toward greater flexibility in pay systems, although the hourly model has not been fully displaced.
Historically, piecework has been widely used in blue-collar jobs, where earnings depend directly on the amount of work performed per shift. This is common in many manufacturing settings — for assemblers, pickers, seamstresses, loaders, and combine operators.
In 2022–2024, amid labor shortages, employers more often offered fixed salaries as a more stable and guaranteed option to attract workers. In 2025, when the situation with hiring stabilized and economic efficiency became a priority, interest in piecework started to grow again.
This interest manifests itself in several ways. First, as noted above, many companies are introducing KPIs and bonuses for meeting plans, which essentially turns part of the pay into performance-based compensation. A worker who meets or exceeds production norms earns significantly more. Second, the growth of alternative forms of employment encourages pay for completed work: many people combine permanent and temporary employment, as well as entrepreneurship and factory work. That is, in addition to a fixed salary and a 5/2 schedule, a person can take on side jobs and receive extra money for completed tasks — this is common in delivery, repairs, and project work. Third, companies themselves are introducing more flexibility — some have shifted to flexible schedules and job-order pay. For example, auto repair shops pay mechanics for completed repair orders (so-called “accord pay”). In construction, some workers are paid not for days worked but for completed project stages.
At the same time, it is still too early to talk about a complete abandonment of hourly/salary systems. Most employers retain a fixed salary as the foundation, supplementing it with performance-based pay. Fully piece-rate pay is not possible everywhere — for example, at sites where constant process control is crucial for safety. There, companies continue to pay for time so that workers don’t chase quantity at the expense of other aspects.
However, the share of “conditionally piece-rate” pay is growing. Employers are increasingly incentivizing performance with money. For workers, this is beneficial because they can influence their income. Overall, 2025 has cemented the trend toward paying for results, while the salary model remains the main form of remuneration. It can be expected that in the coming years, as labor tracking is further digitalized, mixed pay models (salary + performance bonus, or flexible schedule with task-based pay) will become the standard for more and more occupations.
Tools for Reducing Payroll Costs (FOT) in 2025
In a slowing economy, companies are looking for ways to optimize their payroll funds. In 2025, employers mainly use flexible tools to reduce personnel costs:
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Reducing variable pay. If earlier companies paid generous monthly bonuses, in difficult periods they can revise them downward or temporarily freeze them. The law limits the ability to cut bonuses arbitrarily, but a 10–20% reduction or changing the frequency of payments is a real tool. In addition, companies can cancel one-off annual bonuses or 13th salaries — i.e., payments not directly mandated by the Labor Code.
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Limiting overtime and extra pay. Many employers ban overtime, optimizing schedules so that people don’t work extra hours. This reduces spending on overtime premiums. Night shifts are also cut or rearranged to reduce extra pay. Some companies offer time off instead of extra pay: for work on a holiday, they give an extra day off, which also saves money.
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Reduced hours and downtime. Instead of layoffs, companies shift staff to part-time — for example, a 4-day week or shortened shifts. In this case, the official salary is not reduced, but pay is made in proportion to hours worked — that is, effectively lower. This approach was widely used in spring 2025, when a number of companies, facing declining orders, introduced reduced hours or forced leave.
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Optimizing headcount. Despite reluctance to lay off employees, some companies do cut staff — more often administrative and support functions. The share of organizations planning layoffs rose from 7% in January to 11.5% in June 2025. This is often linked to the reduction of temporary contractors but also affects permanent staff. Companies also leave vacant positions unfilled after voluntary resignations, cut hiring, and redistribute workloads to remaining employees.
In sectors going through a difficult period, these measures are especially noticeable. Employers are already optimizing staff structures and adjusting compensation due to declining demand for personnel. For example, auto dealers are cutting sales bonuses, developers are moving some workers to rotational shifts (pay only for actual rotations worked), and retail is cutting night shifts and the extra pay for them. All this allows employers to reduce payroll funds and optimize costs. For workers, such measures are psychologically less painful than layoffs, although they do reduce income. This is the typical employer approach in 2025 — to balance between cutting costs and retaining key staff.
Anna Dmitrieva, Deputy Managing Director for Operational Efficiency, ANCOR